India’s fertilizer output drops 24.6% as middle east conflict disrupts gas supply

India’s fertilizer production fell by nearly a quarter in March, driven by disruptions in natural gas supplies amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Government data showed the sharp decline was linked to supply interruptions, increasing pressure on the country’s agricultural sector.

Natural gas is a key raw material for urea production in India, where urea is the primary fertilizer used in the country’s large agricultural system. Production is closely tied to global energy supply and price fluctuations. However, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, disrupting gas supplies.

Since about one-third of global fertilizer supplies pass through this waterway, concerns have risen that the blockade could affect global food production. The impact is particularly significant for India, where agriculture accounts for more than 45 percent of total employment. Any fertilizer shortage could further strain farmers relying on small-scale and low-yield farming systems.

According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, fertilizer production in March 2026 declined by 24.6 percent compared to the same period last year. This follows earlier growth trends, with production rising 3.4 percent in February, 3.7 percent in January, and 4.1 percent in December 2025.

Despite the decline, the government maintains there will be no immediate shortage. The Petroleum Ministry has stated that the country currently has “adequate fertilizer reserves” and is working to diversify supply sources from multiple countries.

Fertilizer demand in India is typically highest ahead of monsoon crop sowing (June-July) and winter crop sowing (October-November). To address price pressures, the government increased fertilizer subsidy by 11 percent in April, which is expected to provide some relief to farmers.

However, India’s fertilizer system remains heavily import-dependent. Along with urea, the country relies on foreign sources for raw materials such as rock phosphate, phosphoric acid, and potash. As a result, supply chain disruptions may have long-term consequences.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization has warned that fertilizer supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict could pose a serious threat to global food security, indicating potential pressure on agricultural production and food availability not only in India but worldwide.